Working it out from the running order
Build the agenda in chapters before you commit to a duration, and give each chapter two things: a time it should take and a takeaway the audience leaves with. Then add up the chapters, and add the transitions, because the five minutes it takes to move from one subject to the next are the minutes every planner forgets. That total is your honest length, and it will almost always be shorter than the number you had in mind.
If the total is much longer than the hour you wanted, the fix is not to speak faster. Cut a chapter, drop a takeaway, or move something to the slides people receive afterwards. If the total is much shorter than the length you announced, you have discovered the padding before your audience does, which is the cheapest possible moment to find it. Either way the arithmetic is doing the work the rule of thumb could not, and the duration you publish is one the material can actually fill.